Film medium is on a rocky road and the factors end up being financial.

The perception amongst insurers that the slight lag between a) reviewing and checking scene's video-split rushes and b) getting the developed neg safely back in storage and digitised - is enough to send the biil through the roof for many producers. The fear that a lead actor might somehow not complete a movie or be available for a re-shoot is just one example of a single, analysed risk factor which decreases when you shoot digital.

The downhill trend for most technologies is the attrition of trained staff. Just like maintaining your perfectly working 1968 Mustang, the experienced mechanics are retiring and being replaced by 17-year-old apprentices who can work with chip circuitry.

Just like the Mustang, film might get cheap parts from Mexico or China - or even whole overseas camera rebuilds might replace the labour completely. But this is speculation.

A lot of what happens will depend upon what China decides to do. Their domestic market is important for European and American movies. [Not only do they make good movies; they have silver halide technology too - I've been looking for a Wolf 35mm camera for years because they're good and easily kept in good running order].

A vague hope of salvation via a Chinese film-industry notwithstanding, I see film technology losing relevance, personnel and ancillary technology - gradually but eventually.

Yes, if a budget comes to shooting costs alone, this is honeymoon-time for indy film makers. You can shoot using your dad's car, the best looking girl from the acting class and your mate's gloopy synthesizer music.

But for those who hire Paris's Gare du Nord overnight, decorate it to look like WWII under Nazi occupation, hire Depardieu, cranes, trains and the Vienna Philharmonic, the cost of the camera acquisition technology is not the main consideration - rather it's being certain that the right footage is in the can as dawn rises and 30,000 passengers want to use the railway.

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@blackout

So "movie making is the only art form where the artist can't afford the material for his art." is a dead quote now. You can get a GH2, hack it, some simple, light kits and reflectors, and a decent computer for under 5K and make a movie and project it and audiences will not know. 5K rather than millions? That's amazing.

Not quite dead, I'd say. It goes without saying that decent production values do not of themselves make for a professional production, and nobody goes to low-budget movies for production value anyway. Success at this level is elusive and can't be readily quantified -- and even more so now, with the flood of cheapo productions -- but better production values won't make any difference in this niche.

Which is another reason I've never been able to understand the claim that the price of film made of filmmaking an elitist club. The barriers to competing are every bit as insurmountable as they have always been, even if the camera and film were free.

Of course, nobody wants to hear this, but if you've been around long enough, you've been hearing the same argument -- moviemaking is a democracy now! -- for years.

@RRRR

excessive budgets are limited to very, very few

In case you didn't get my point, it's the high-budget & sales-volume productions which will pretty much determine whether emulsion film continues to be produced. Chinese audiences are massive.

We're just the little guys, along for the ride. Hey, I remember a time when an amateur could buy super-8 locally - but for 16mm you had to prove your credentials to Eastman and open an account before they'd begrudgingly send you your 100 ft roll. The rumour used to be it had something to do with the porno industry :-)

@Roberto; oh; I have no doubt about that there will be clear aesthetics for our time and age as well. It's already obvious with full frame video; bokeh, oof galore now has become stamped with "full frame dslr". An effect that became overused overnight.. But this is only one part of a much more complex contemporary image making generation. I'm not familiar with the context of the Anthony Blunt quote but; it has no merit. An image that looks absolutely identical to another although acquired differently are identical; as pure images. (if you know the story behind, that's a different thing!) You cannot tell the difference apart. Not now, not over time. However, there are plenty of popular "As if" aesthetics; which mimick certain things from another, now here the acquisition may indeed shine through. Especially over time, for a number of reasons.

In an ideal world; If your digital shot frame is like a blank canvas; you can make it look like anything; doesn't that make the avid digital picture maker potentially a master of all aesthetics; including something else alltogether?

That said, what is achievable? There are pitfalls for every acquisition format. There are benefits with every acquisition format.

Delivery format will be digital, that much is certain, but fair point re: film availability.

China still has Hollywood's complete Technicolor System intact. Cameras, Labs, etc. If you need to remake "Gone with the Wind" with Chinese extras, that's where to do it! Frankly, my dear, I don't give a Chang. Or a Woo!

Although I found Hong Kong movies in the 80's and 90's exciting. The new China co-productions seem to be over-bloated with CGI. One of the best I've seen can be considered a non-action action movie. The Sword Identity. Unlike HK swirling action, it's a quiet action movie:

Actual clips here:

http://wildgrounds.com/2011/09/03/a-first-look-at-the-sword-identity/

( The Lionsgate Studio release may have a different soundtrack. The trailer uses a loud Crash-Bang Hans Zimmer gone Oriental track. The original music is a very important element of the movie)

Since we're on the subject of 'film is dead' and China, for those who haven't seen it, I suggest you go out and buy this on Blu-ray....

'City of Life and Death' - Written and directed by Chuan Lu (shot in colour on 35mm and converted to B&W.) What ever the true history of the Rape of Nanking, and while this film is undoubtedly propagandized (aren't all nearly all war films?), it is also an extraordinary piece of film making. Almost every scene is a work of pure cinematic art.

(Bear in mind there are extras a plenty available in China and I'm almost certain union rates don't apply!)

China is building 8 screens a day, 75 IMAX theaters this year alone

Population of China, 1961–2008

Population: 1,339,724,852 (2010 census) (1st) ^[Wikipedia]

WASHINGTON – The Motion Picture Association of America, Inc. (MPAA) today released its annual Theatrical Market Statistics Report for 2011. The report shows that global box office receipts for all films released around the world reached $32.6 billion, an increase of 3% over 2010, due to ongoing growth of box office in international markets. Each international region experienced box office growth in 2011. Chinese box office grew by 35% in 2011 alone, by far the largest growth in major markets.

... ...China is building 8 screens a day, 75 IMAX theaters this year alone. They're excited about developing their own product as well as coproductions. They want to produce product for sale nationally and globally. It's a great win for us, indies and studios, and foreign productions."

From Indiewire: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/global-box-office-climb-continues-in-2011#

I doubt highly those Imax screens will be fitted with the old film imax projectors , but the new digital imax brand. The old projectors are the size of construction vehicles and very costly.

Whoa Nelly! This thread you started is really great! Like Roberto, I've shot about two feet of videotape and a zillion feet of film. And, I hope I'm not out of line, also excited with what's finally happening now with digital aquisition. And really the gh2 and what Vitaly and co. have done with it. Gear has always been pretty low on my list, way under cast and crew, so what happens happens. I still would feel more confident on a narrative shoot using 35mm film. Thats just me. Blackout. I'd love to sit and have a cup of tea some day. You're passion comes through in this article. That's so healthy! It's not to often that I meet folks like you. Jack of all trades and a master too. Keep it up. Roberto - I alway love reading your posts too. Journeyman filmaker. I hope all listen. Best, Bill

@Blackout

as @bheath says,

This thread you started is really great!

I echo bheath's sentiments exactly. It's the thread we had to have, shot out of a cannon with a blast of stream-of-consciousness because it was probably the only way to get us moving.

Your multidimensional,unstoppable creativity comes through and I'm sure we'll go on to see innovatiions in independent filmmaking from you.

I still order 16mm tri-x, because I love it for its look combined with the Zenit Meteor lens.

I'd like to think film is not quite dead yet.

"it's the only human art form that combines ALL the disciplines of EVERY OTHER art form and science known to man into a new art form. Movies basically combine all of the the arts into one."

Video games don't count? It takes all of the artforms you mentioned and adds interactivity on top of that.