@bannedindv

Simple recipes never work as intended.
Pressing corporations most probably will result in big problems on all market segments.

Obama vs. John Boehner = shit trillion Poker

Many theories on how to create society that is stable over longer time (2+ generations, 40+ years). Economics is part of it, of course. But politics, too.

My theory? Some people get mad...

Poor will be poor and there will always be poor. Rich will be rich and there will always be rich. No escaping that. Trick for stability is to keep "middle classes" large and hopeful…meaning realistic chance to have enough resources and not fall down economic ladder (i.e., become poor). Too much despair by too many people = less stable (i.e., change, civil war, revolution).

Answers/Definitions for the terms used (poor, middle class, rich, hopeful, resources, etc.) have some absolute values (e.g., "society is 3 meals away from revolution," ~lower needs on Maslow hierarchy) and some relative values (e.g., "1500cc engine is right size to carry 4 people," ~upper needs on Maslow hierarchy).

Different societies have different methods to maintain societal balance…feudalism, capitalism, socialism, communism, fascism, even non-secular like cult, spiritualism, religionism, etc. Whatever. But ultimate goal is usually the same, preserve power wherever it currently sits. Else there is risk of changing to a different model with different rules…and people in power don't generally like risk that kind of change brings.

So what is US Debt Limit in this picture? Why is there a crisis now?

My opinion? Now people get really mad...

I think this is just same shit, different day. It is a crisis now because the political parties think they can use "crisis" name as an advantage in political fight. That's it. End of story.

Some people are scared of numbers. US$14T is Big Number…increase of debt limit will make it bigger! US$15T? OMG…such huge number - it must be bad, bad, bad. My calculator can't hold such a big number. It so big that my Excel causes "1.5E+13" error*. WTF? Try figuring what US$ would be in Rupees = Excel has locked up my MacBook Pro. Force Quit…get bigger CPU and more RAM it will be better.

But, there are other big numbers, too. For example, US economy is also very big number. It is a bigger number than the US debt - and that's even when US economy has 10%+ unemployment.

If you run business you know that big debt isn't bad. It's good. The important part about debt is how much does it cost AND what do you buy with it?

Cost of US debt now is very small - even by historical standards. Probably less than 2% of US economy…Of course, if US "defaults," then costs go up.

No, I think real fight is what US buys for its debt. You see that on charts higher in thread. What part of that budget is like business investment that helps you make more money? OK - some would say that US needs to budget for more than just investment. OK, but...

From NASA example above? Now some people want to kill me…

I like NASA, but it spends most of its budget supporting manned space flight. It is stoopid. NASA should spend most of its budget on unmanned space flight. Don't send people to do a machine job! Too risky to send people. Rocket blows up - if people in it = big delay, big $. Rocket blows up - if no people in it = fix it and build 10 more for less money. Much better investment return if NASA developing robotics, AI and - ok, I keep it on topic - imaging technology.

I wish Russians would crash ISS into Pacific now. Just let me know where and I capture it on filmic 24p high bit rate hacked GH2. Actually…I'd probably want 60p to catch that action, even if it have video DOF.

Back to testing GH2 hack.


*I know what "E" is…just a joke.

Ayn Rand, if you're thinking Atlas Shrugged, more describes China :) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Shrugged

But she was right about individualism... Not so much as a force for good actually, but as the beginning of the end. By nature humans are selfish. We have spiritual beliefs, societies and rules for a reason. I am not in the least bit religious, but once we lose the things that keeps our innate selfishness in check, we're in trouble.

Government factions, both on left and right who can't agree this debt deal are acting more like individuals than members of a society. Thus their selfish urges are to the cost of the greater good.

This is what the great Rand believers always forget, amongst whom Steve Jobs and many others in Silicon Valley are believers.

If the US fails as a collective, it will be because of excessive individualism.

Individualism also lead to Nazism. The working classes felt disenfranchised, jealous of the wealthier jews, frustrated with immigration and downtrodden. The Nazi movement gave them an individualism, an ideology to cling to, in much the same way religion and right wing ideologies in the US give politicians the force to push through their selfish urges, knowing deep down that it could cause disaster at any moment.

And round we go lol - China gets the wonga - people react, housing booms, housing crashes etc etc India gets etc ?

Guys, no more politics in this topic, please.
Because, as I said, US Default will happen despite all political mess.

>A more accurate statement is the US Default will happen BECAUSE of all the political mess :/

Nope. Absolutely inaccurate. Political mess is spectacle made for casual guys. Ones that'll find their life to be much harder soon.

@Vitaliy
Absolutely accurate. Minority Leader of US Senate is on the record as stating the party's #1 objective is making Obama a one term president. That's pure politics right there. The thirst to recapture political power is what prevents compromise and without compromise there is default. And if you're referencing long term structural issues in the US economy, those are also driven by public policy decisions. Politicians make laws that giver cover to things that normally pass for corruption. The reason Wall Street bankers never got charged with crimes related to conflict of interest (G&S) and running the economy into a ditch while at the same time granting themselves million dollar bonuses financed by taxpayers is that they didn't break any laws.
So I disagree if you're saying what we're seeing now is manufactured spectacle. It's real genuine dysfunction.

@Vitaliy_Kiselev
"Guys, no more politics in this topic, please."

OK. But hard to discuss US default issue w/o political considerations. The only reason the US Debt Limit is a "crisis" now, is because of politics. In the US, Debt Limit is separate issue from US Government Spending Program.

The US Debt Limit - the show going on right now - is 99.9999% politics. Imagine Husband and Wife have computer to run a big Spending Program. Husband and Wife agree to Spending Program and start it. Store has delivered new GH2 and 400 pairs of shoes and is waiting at the front door for check. But printer is running out of ink! Husband and Wife cannot agree on who will fill up printer ink. Money is spent, stuff is delivered, so who fills up the printer ink is just a side show - politics for the benefit of future argument Husband and Wife will have next year.

As for economics...

The US Debt is just a number. What is important, is what does the debt cost and what do you buy with it.

Amount and Cost of US Debt is simple numbers. No meaningful discussion. Characterization as "small" or "low" is opinion, but not too much debate when considered historically or with other countries.

What you buy with debt is 99.9999% politics - depends on politics at work in particular society.

So if we set aside US politics...I say total US Debt is less than annual US GDP and conclude it is "small." I also say that the current cost of carrying debt is less than 2% annual US GDP and is cheap - but will soon be more expensive because the bitch doesn't want to put more ink in the printer so she can score points in argument we will have in 2012 so she can buy more shoes and less cameras.

:-)

Here you can see where some of the money goes.