@Vitaliy_Kiselev this one and the one with big bang theory being made to fit the hot spot are very intriguing. Unfortunately they fit reality.

So maybe this “epidemic” was controlled before officially known. This may suggest it.

A simpler explanation: lock downs and large use of masks diminished spreading of Corona as well as seasonal flu viruses.

I understand... interesting.

EDIT: read my next post as I have the exponent wrong.

Bull. If r0 reduces from 1.2 to 1.1, over say 50 generations, the numbers reduce. So earlier flu was 100^(50^1.2) and now it's 100^(50^1.1)

Methods used to reduce covid also reduce flu. By reducing r0 you reduce the numbers substantially as numbers of infected are the exponent of exponent.

Due to mask usage, the r0 can reduce from 1.2 to 1.0

The initial 100 are the super spreaders. Each one passes to 1.2 so the next generation is 100^1.2

Each successive generation is an exponent of r0. So over 50 generations (here a generation is just a new group that comes in contact) the infected rate is 100^(50^1.2)

General formula is :- p for initial population, r0 is rate of spread and g is generations. So total infected is p^(g^r0)

Now a small reduction in r0 over say 100 generations can reduce the infected from millions to thousands.

The reduction in flu numbers indicate that mask usage and social distancing is actually working.

What ? Distancing and masks work better for influenza. Thats common sense. Why would you see intense flu infections ? Everyone is sitting at home.

Common cold has a lower r0 than covid to begin with. Its much easier to control influenza than covid.

From here - https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

The flu has an R0 value of 1.3, which means each person with the flu transmits it to between one and two people. Researchers are still determining the R0 for COVID-19, but preliminary studies according to a JAMA article - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510 say an infected person spreads the virus to an average two or three people, giving SARS-CoV-2 an R0 of 2 to 3. Some studies, however, estimate the R0 value to be closer to 6 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287 — one infected person passes the virus on to six people, an infection rate much higher than that of the seasonal flu.

Are you saying strict lockdowns don't work to control COVID? Not even a little bit? Sorry but that is nonsense.

Look at the actual data, and correlation with lockdown measures. Available for all countries here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc

Lockdown measures such as the closure of borders on an island such as Taiwan or New Zealand along with quarantine hotels have helped to almost eradicate COVID from such countries. Look at the death stats.

The fall and rise of COVID cases can be seen directly falling as a result of a lockdown in countries like the UK and directly raising again afterwards when one is lifted, again in the UK due to government incompetence starting December 2nd 2020 in London. The first of the second-wave lockdowns in November temporarily prevented the out of control situation we got later, and should have been continued. These are absolutely necessary and scientifically justified to prevent hospital ICU wards going into complete meltdown.

Of course normal flu and influenza is being pushed down at a greater rate than COVID by the lockdowns. Nowhere near as contagious. Potentially also, COVID has become the dominant strain vs normal flu this season, and in those unlucky enough to get both flu and COVID, the hospitals are not going to record the normal flu - only COVID.

Masks in Asian countries are not used by 100% of the public during normal times or even 80%. It is common to see only those currently with a cold or flu using a mask in public. Maybe 5-10% of people in a crowded train.

The lockdowns did do what they promised initially.

See the highest coronavirus death rates in countries which had the most relaxed rules. USA, Brazil.

Even Sweden.

The death rates and case numbers in Sweden are in excess of their neighbouring nordic countries with their strict lockdowns aren't they? In China the original lockdowns were very strictly enforced. Was coronavirus a problem there afterwards? Doesn't seem like it. No more emergency hospital construction.

The flu cases may not even be recorded. Doesn't mean to say they're not there. If you have a runny nose and flu, you're not going to be running down to the doctor at a time like this. Only shortness of breath and covid symptoms will you be going anywhere near a hospital and only then does the stat tick up for flu or covid.

If Taiwan hadn't reacted in January 2020 very early with strict quarantine at the border and most advanced track & trace system in the world then they'd have needed a lockdown like anywhere else. I only wish now that the British government would have been that effective and clued-up so early on. Ours was a shambles... And neither quarantine or track & trace currently functions 1 year later.

In New Zealand and South Korea, more successful examples of countries where coronavirus has been brought to heel by strict controls and government policies.

In many countries it has been a lockdown-lite, or stupid policies, like in Germany from June-November. This is why the full lockdown is once again needed now, but judging from the traffic on the road and people on the street nobody gives a shit anymore about rules. They have lost faith in the government.

Oh mighty scholar.

I don't watch CNN and don't read the NYT. The coronavirus stats are independent from all media sources. You can easily compare the dates of lockdowns and compare lockdown rule severity and see the correlation with coronavirus statistics. If you are on lockdown with flu symptoms, you do not even ring a doctor unless you have serious trouble with breathing. Then, it's most likely to be coronavirus and off you go to the hospital. How are they supposed to record accurate flu statistics under such circumstances?

If we analyze the situation that is happening now, not only in dark snowy Mordor, but also in bright green European countries and on a global scale, then we can safely say that this has not happened in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the last century. ...

If by April there is no surge in the incidence of influenza, then we can talk about the first epidemiological season in the history of observations, somewhere since the 40s of the twentieth century, which passed without this disease, noted the deputy director for scientific work, head of the department of etiology and epidemiology of the Research Institute of Influenza Smorodintseva Daria Danilenko. She said that the almost complete absence of the influenza virus this season is a unique phenomenon. “If we analyze the situation that is happening now, not only in Russia, but also in European countries, and on a global scale, we can safely say that this was not the case. in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the last century. "

She is confident that the situation is related to the spread of coronavirus, however, the full range of reasons has yet to be clarified. The doctor noted that the incidence of influenza begins to rise in the period from the end of December, and the epidemic season ends around the end of March or early April.

There are two weeks left until the beginning of April, and if nothing changes, then we can summarize that in this epidemic season, we will not see the circulation of the virus.

Report from Netherlands

The flu in the winter of 2020-2021 evaporated: it was not found in any sample of tests taken for research on covid.

Some nice news from CDC

“Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-21 influenza season.”

https://www.wakingtimes.com/cdc-announces-they-will-be-rolling-back-collection-of-flu-data-during-the-2020-2021-season/