My money is on Gravity :-)
Yeah, it's the likely winner. It's just tough because so much of the film isn't really an effect but an animated motion picture containing visual effects. For 80%+ the film has less plate photography than Life of Pi had, which was, itself, blurring the line between live action and animated film.
After watching Sandra Bullock's performance in Gravity, I gotta wonder if the whole thing wasn't animated. What an over rated film.
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