Unmanageable complexity: Zugzwang

Vitaliy_Kiselev

It is so fun to watch various experts and analytics, especially since Cyprus fun began.

I'll ignore ultra liberal fluff, as it is just waste of time, but set of proposed solutions from smarter ones is quite typical.

Most popular one is reindustrialisation and moving manufacturing back to Europe and US. Combined with some sort of customs fees preventing competition with foreight goods.

Issue here is that current crisis is fundamental, tightly connected to population numbers, automatization, energy, land and resources available. Plus extreme complexity of current systems and products. Reindustrialization, unfortunately is not solution for all this problems.

Usually target country has enery deficit, trade deficit, issues with working force, issues with logistics due other sectors also moved away. Worst things here is that it needs big amount of energy and resources, and this, in turn could mean life level drop. In global scale in means less efficient energy usage (due to reducing scale and concentration and also due to bigger consumption standards of new workers) and increased complexity. Such approach could work perfect on the left slope of energy curve, with big amount of cheap energy. And we saw exactly this. Now it won't work.

You can also try to make most of population work in small firms that use old primitive approach requiring many unskilled workers, but it'll require more energy, more land and more resources. Only easy solution is to reduce population on large scale.

Another popular idea is regulation of commercial banks. Issue here is misunderstanding of banks role. Banks in their current form had been made to solve fucking rabbits problem. Potential(!) resources and possibilities had been so vast that most effective approach was to just "make" money via multiplier and lend it to everyone who could use them. As this is not the case now, system stopped working properly. And use of any usual measures won't run it again. So, commercial banks will be destroyed. Corporations hope that they'll be in charge of superbanks, as if it won't happen most of them will share commercial banks destiny. I am almost sure that this attempt will fail.

spacewig

Only easy solution is to reduce population on large scale.

Until you find out the population targeted for "reduction" is the one you belong to.

endotoxic

So, a massive human killing meassure is a posibility under such extreme non resolving issues.

how theyl doit..dunno.

but, it will eventually happen. Machinery with low energy conumption, new tech and less people.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Until you find out the population targeted for "reduction" is the one you belong to.

:-) Nope, I mean that it is only easy solutions. May be others exists, I am just not aware.

kellar42

We must colonize space.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

We must colonize space.

You mean here that we must send few billions to space? :-) And you also know energy required?

spacewig

VK,

It is not a solution, just a daydream. I mean first you have to identify who are the billion+ people that need to go? It's not the people from the underdeveloped countries no one gives a shit about, they already have very scant access to resources (the population, not the leaders) and actually manage to survive on very little. You'd have to get rid of populations that are currently consuming food and resources on a massive scale, i.e. mainly the West: N.A., Europe, Australia, maybe China and India. Then, how to terminate so many people? Biological warfare, Nuclear bombs, contaminate water sources? Well now you've created more and worse problems than you started with. Conventional warfare? Your target is armed and will fight back which will eventually lead to the use of WMD's from one or both sides so same problem as above. The only conceivable way of "managing" a vast liquidation on this scale is through the collusion of warring parties. So leaders of countries agree beforehand to a set of rules/conditions then invent a pretext for war which results in killing each other's population until they've reached a predetermined quota. Good luck finding a sane person to participate. You could always try converting the moon into a huge speaker that blares Barbara Streisand/Wayne Newton when the moon is orbiting over your enemy...

Vitaliy_Kiselev

It is not a solution, just a daydream. I mean first you have to identify who are the billion+ people that need to go?

I am talking about the problem and only simple solution. And nature likes simple solutions. Millions of different unique species are extinct. Billions of animals died in pain. So for nature it won't be something big. And it can even happen against wishes of elites.

spacewig

I didn't realize you meant it that way. Fully agree. As a part of nature perhaps our insane behavior is a built in mechanism designed to self-regulate over-population.

Mirrorkisser

It is a mechanism of nature. I have recently seen a very interesting documentary flick. About a zen monch, bees and a hornet queen. The hornet queen sends out a smell which works on a hormon level. the other hornets obey her orders. they kill bees, extinct their tribes and kill other insects to feed their larva. and they build a nest, a castle. in the meantime the queen tries to place all her eggs in time for a new generation. She has to be quick though, because when her hormon smell stops all other hornets will first kill her and then anarchy will break loose and they will all kill eachother. if she was fast enough she will have placed all her eggs in a safe place where the larva will get enough nutrition. accepting all this as nature is a zen approach :)

please dont discredit this as offtopic, although i am testing your skills of abstraction. So before you bash me i will offer which words/parameters to exchange and shed some light :)

A more human policy would perhaps be something like birth reduction rates like in china. this could proof not to be fast enough though. Epidemic plagues may not be controllable enough. Maybe under the false pretence of an epidemic plague a terminating "immunization"?

Vitaliy_Kiselev

A more human policy would perhaps be something like birth reduction rates like in china

Won't work, as it leads to even worse thing - bunch of old farts and little work force.

Mirrorkisser

its still the approach i consider to be the most controllable. of course you have the sideeffects of overaging population. But once the generation of old farts dies, there will be a younger one, small in number. All other approaches have their sideeffects aswell and uncontrollable factors.

Genocide would be an approach. You have to pick out a group that is not able to defend itself, just like in the 3rd reich.

The red revolution, although not a genocide in any form, cost millions of lives for a higher cause aswell. Maybe 80 % of the intelligentsija (that group would not be big enough though :) ) should be the first that gets send to gulags where their labour energy can at least be used.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

its still the approach i consider to be the most controllable. of course you have the sideeffects of overaging population. But once the generation of old farts dies, there will be a younger one, small in number. All other approaches have their sideeffects aswell and uncontrollable factors.

No, it won't be. System will collapse first and will be conquered by other nations. As it is now happening in EU. In Japan situation is also very bad.

The red revolution, although not a genocide in any form, cost millions of lives for a higher cause aswell. Maybe 80 % of the intelligentsija (that group would not be big enough though :) ) should be the first that gets send to gulags where their labour energy can at least be used

Let's just not go here on such level, ok?

Scot

Well let's talk film solutions Logan's Run. The bad news I'm already past my expiration date : (

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