https://personal-view.com/talks/discussions/tagged/economics/p10/feed.rss Sat, 23 Nov 24 13:10:30 +0000 Tagged with economics - Personal View Talks en-CA https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/846/us-money-required Sat, 03 Sep 2011 16:27:05 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 846@/talks/discussions
So... US Sues 17 Major Banks Over Risky Mortgages

U.S. regulator sued a number of major banks Friday over losses on more than $41 billion in subprime mortgage bonds, which may hamper a broader government mortgage settlement with banks.

The lawsuits by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, came as a surprise to the market and weighed on bank shares. The lawsuits could add billions of dollars to the banks' potential costs at perhaps the worst possible time for the industry.

Read the rest at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44377694

]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/821/greece-bonds-again Wed, 31 Aug 2011 12:16:21 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 821@/talks/discussions

60% for one year bonds :-)]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/840/gs-report-tough-time-ahead Sat, 03 Sep 2011 02:23:10 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 840@/talks/discussions

Many fancy charts.
Interesting stuff.

Read the report at http://www.scribd.com/doc/63818804/GS-StateOf-the-Markets]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/833/panasonic-entry-digital-cameras-production-in-taiwan Thu, 01 Sep 2011 18:01:38 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 833@/talks/discussions
Taiwan-based Ability Enterprise is expected to receive orders for high-end digital cameras from Panasonic in 2012, the sources said.

Via: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110831PD200.html]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/754/us-end-of-dollar-epoch Wed, 24 Aug 2011 14:24:23 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 754@/talks/discussions

Film shown on main Russian TV channel in prime time :-)]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/751/greece-two-year-note-yield-rises-to-40.47 Wed, 24 Aug 2011 11:16:49 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 751@/talks/discussions
Ten-year Greek yields were 17 basis points higher at 17.60 percent.

Via: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-24/greek-two-year-note-yield-rises-to-40-47-highest-since-euro-introduction.html]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/710/us-one-target-remains Fri, 19 Aug 2011 12:02:49 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 710@/talks/discussions
Look at them.

Fuck the stock market.
Fuck stability of the international trade.
Japan and Switzerland are not very glad also. Fuck them also.

Terminally ill US economy have one and only one target now - bonds.
Few others are also fine of course, like robbing Sirya and Libya money.
But this is for the name of democracy(tm).

Good byproduct for small investors is that predictability of large instututions raise with each passed day.]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/435/apple-76-billion-in-cash Tue, 19 Jul 2011 20:38:30 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 435@/talks/discussions Apple posted record high quarterly revenues of $28.57 billion and record high quarterly profits of $7.31 billion as iPad and iPhone sales enjoyed triple-digit growth. It's a day full of superlatives for the Cupertino kids. The Wall Street Journal's Dennis K. Berman notes on Twitter, "Apple now has $78 billion of cash in the bank*. That's worth more than all of Goldman Sachs, market value $65 billion."

Apple said on a conference call that the company had only $76.2 billion in the bank. The increase of over $10 billion still has the company comfortably ahead of Goldman, though. Should Goldman ever wish to cash out, Apple could afford to buy them at their current market cap and still have billions left over.

Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/07/apple-could-buy-goldman-sachs-with-its-76-billion-in-cash/242219/

It is not uncommon thing.
Many US based companies have unusual amounts of cash.

My personal theory on this is that Apple and many other companies had been used in past years to prepare "invasion army".
Army consisting from companies that kind of not connected with gorverment and will fight for resources and production companies right before shock and during first stages of coming drama.
After this, on second part, real owners will come into play.
]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/661/italy-reforms-kind-of Sat, 13 Aug 2011 03:51:01 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 661@/talks/discussions
* Cuts to the budgets of central government ministries, worth a total of 6 billion euros in 2012 and 2.5 bln in 2013.
* Funding to town councils, regions and provinces reduced by 6 bln euros in 2012 and 3.5 bln euros in 2013.
* Unspecified changes to the pension system to save 1 billion euros in 2012.
* A progressive increase in the retirement age of women in the private sector to 65 from 60 to begin in 2016, instead of 2020 as previously planned.
* The retirement funds of public sector employees will be withheld for two years after they leave their jobs.
* A reduction the "cost of politics" resulting in a halving of elected officials and around 55,000 fewer positions in the apparatus of central and local government. However, Berlusconi did not give a timescale for these cuts.
* Abolition of 34 of Italy's 110 provincial governments and the merging of town councils with less than 1,000 inhabitants. However, this measure will be "for the future" and not become effective during the government's current term of office, Berlusconi said.

HIGHER REVENUES

* A "solidarity tax" on high earners, to be levied for two years, as an additional 5 percent on income above 90,000 euros per year and 10 percent on income above 150,000 euros.
* Increase in taxation of income from financial investments to 20 percent from 12.5 percent, excluding income from government bonds.
* Purchases worth more than 2,500 euros will no longer be allowed to be made in cash, as a means of curbing tax evasion. There will also be tougher * penalties, such as suspension from professional bodies, for failure to issue receipts and invoices.
All non-religious public holidays, such as the June 2 anniversary of the founding of the Italian Republic, will be celebrated on a Sunday in a bid to increase the number of working days in a year.

REFORMS

A liberalisation of national labour contracts giving greater scope to strike accords at the company or local level.

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/summarizing-terms-italian-austerity-or-here-comes-piazza-navona-strike-cam]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/657/greece-better-and-better Fri, 12 Aug 2011 17:43:01 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 657@/talks/discussions





Looks like improvement, don't you think?]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/649/30-year-bond-auction- Fri, 12 Aug 2011 02:34:08 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 649@/talks/discussions Indirect Bidders Imploded to a paltry 12.2%! Those wondering if Chinese posturing would led to anything more than just jawboning have their answer. The Indirect tendered bids were just $3 billion or about 20% of the total auction size, which resulted in a $2 billion take down. It was so bad that the Directs were for the first time in 30 Year history greater than the Indirects. And yes, while the yield was close to record low it won't stay there especially if as is now expected, August 26 will see the BEA report a second GDP revision of ~0.6% at 8:30 am, which will be promptly followed by Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole address. And so the yoyo continues: what today's auction has proven is that going forward the Fed will be forced to crash the market every day that there is a Treasury auction, while ramping stocks on days when Treasury does not need to fund its borrowing binge.

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/horrible-30-year-bond-auction-prices-11-unprecedented-bps-tail]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/645/market-interesting-stuff-from-the-punchline Thu, 11 Aug 2011 01:09:31 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 645@/talks/discussions

Big amount of charts inside!

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]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/625/us-black-monday Mon, 08 Aug 2011 16:03:44 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 625@/talks/discussions

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Small green island called Gold.


It's all red:
]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/589/market-optimism-is-gone-on-vacation Thu, 04 Aug 2011 18:07:39 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 589@/talks/discussions S&P 500 1,200.07 -60.27 (-4.78%)
Nasdaq 2,556.39 -136.68 (-5.08%)

Today was the 9th biggest single-day drop in DOW Jones history, according to CNN.

Tomorrow can be fun also. Especially Europe.]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/607/xinhua-after-historic-downgrade-u.s.-must-address-its-chronic-debt-problems Sat, 06 Aug 2011 09:17:07 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 607@/talks/discussions The days when the debt-ridden Uncle Sam could leisurely squander unlimited overseas borrowing appeared to be numbered as its triple A-credit rating was slashed by Standard & Poor's (S&P) for the first time on Friday.

Though the U.S. Treasury promptly challenged the unprecedented downgrade, many outside the United States believe the credit rating cut is an overdue bill that America has to pay for its own debt addition and the short-sighted political wrangling in Washington.

Dagong Global, a fledgling Chinese rating agency, degraded the U.S. treasury bonds late last year, yet its move was met then with a sense of arrogance and cynicism from some Western commentators. Now S&P has proved what its Chinese counterpart has done is nothing but telling the global investors the ugly truth.

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China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets.

To cure its addiction to debts, the United States has to reestablish the common sense principle that one should live within its means.

S&P has already indicated that more credit downgrades may still follow. Thus, if no substantial cuts were made to the U.S. gigantic military expenditure and bloated social welfare costs, the downgrade would prove to be only a prelude to more devastating credit rating cuts, which will further roil the global financial markets all along the way.

Moreover, the spluttering world economic recovery would be very likely to be undermined and fresh rounds of financial turmoil could come back to haunt us all.

The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone.

It should also stop its old practice of letting its domestic electoral politics take the global economy hostage and rely on the deep pockets of major surplus countries to make up for its perennial deficits.

A little self-discipline would not be too uncomfortable for the United States, the world's largest economy and issuer of international reserve currency, to bear.

Though chances for a full-blown U.S. default are still slim now, the S&P downgrade serves as another warning shot about the long-term sustainability of the U.S. government finances.

International supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars should be introduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.

For centuries, it was the exuberant energy and innovation that has sustained America's role in the world and maintained investors' confidence in dollar assets. But now, mounting debts and ridiculous political wrestling in Washington have damaged America's image abroad.

All Americans, both beltway politicians and those on Main Street, have to do some serious soul-searching to bring their country back from a potential financial abyss.

From: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-08/06/c_131032986.htm]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/606/xinhua-debt-financing-unlikely-to-save-western-economies Sat, 06 Aug 2011 09:12:53 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 606@/talks/discussions
Two factors contribute to the panic in the stock exchange: market concerns over a lasting depression and the struggling U.S. economy, and uneasiness about the possible impact of the sovereign debt issues in nations such as Italy and Spain on the world economy.

Investors are rightly pessimistic about the prospects of the U.S. economy. The United States has long been maintaining economic growth and excessive consumption by means of debt financing, hence masses of economic bubbles, which eventually triggered the financial crisis.

Weak consumer demand leads to a slowdown in economic growth. And the only way the Americans have come up with to improve economic growth has been to take on new loans to repay the old ones. "To eat May's grain in April," however, will never be a permanent solution to a problem.

---

Chances are slim that the Congress-mandated debt ceiling will be further raised. And, even if it is, lack of momentum for economic growth will bring the risk of debt default back again. Under such circumstances, how can the market calm down? As a matter of fact, the New York Stock Exchange bared its teeth before the ink had dried on the debt ceiling bill.

Some European countries, plagued with sovereign debt issues, are now resorting to debt financing from the market as well as international organizations. It is admittedly an expedient, but definitely not an ultimate solution.

The European Union (EU) has noted the key factor behind sovereign debt issues is that some of its members recklessly ran up debts to retain their national welfare. In contrast with a rise in welfare and costs, efficiency and competitiveness are on the decline. The current bailouts offered by international bodies such as the EU are, in a sense, to "rob Peter to pay Paul."

As big economies, the United States and the EU wield an enormous influence on and shoulder a great responsibility for the world economy. Faced with a series of debt crises, they need to reflect on their economic and social development modes and take concrete steps to help solve the "imbalance" problem of the world economy.

Only by introducing reform can they save themselves; only with a sound economic structure can they assume responsibility for the world economy.

From: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2011-08/06/c_131032330.htm]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/585/us-truth-behing-default-comedy Thu, 04 Aug 2011 13:06:54 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 585@/talks/discussions
Why we see downfall in times then stock market is controlled by major players and US goverment?

US has two main targets (as well as major other players - Japan, EU):

1) Keep rates low. And look how they manage to cut them in last two weeks:
2 Year 0.28%
5 Year 1.17%
10 Year 2.51%
30 Year 3.79%



Why? Simple. You have exponentially rising debt, so to keep payments you need to decrease rates.


This chart is not current, but main idea is pretty clear. It had been used for long.

It also explains that real threat is not China.
Real thread is rising rates as double rates mean hundreds of billions new payments.

2) You need basis for QE3. Yes, I mean spending 1-2 trillions in quite short time.
All this talks how they'll save money other next 10 years are all good (as they'll save them on social programs and some real stuff).
But good guys (read banks and insurance) need to live.
]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/586/eu-bonds Thu, 04 Aug 2011 14:37:04 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 586@/talks/discussions


EU bank intervention :-)

Italian police come with visit to rating agencies officies.

]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/508/us-default-comedy-part-2 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 02:44:36 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 508@/talks/discussions
How much damage the U.S. debt ceiling scuffle does to the United States' reputation in global financial markets boils down to two increasingly plausible but very distinct outcomes: downgrade or default.
Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/26/us-usa-debt-default-idUSTRE76P5TI20110726

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And this one is from my reply in previous US topic:
]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/578/time-bombs-still-ticking-in-washington Wed, 03 Aug 2011 15:24:18 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 578@/talks/discussions
The months-long tug of war between Democrats and Republicans, however, failed to defuse Washington's debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer.

Meanwhile, the madcap farce of brinkmanship has disclosed yet another ticking bomb in the heartland of the sole superpower in the world -- the crippling tendency to politicize the economics while trivializing the politics.

Largely in line with the predominant projection, lawmakers from both sides of Washington's political divide capped their gruelling game of chicken with a compromise barely before the deadline when the Treasury Department said Uncle Sam would run out of money to pay the bills.

The last-minute deal did head off the gloomy scenario that the largest economy in the world could not honor its IOUs. But obviously, the combination of a debt limit increase and a spending reduction did not pack a punch powerful enough to make any sizable dent in Washington's deeper fiscal woes.

With its debt already almost equaling its gross domestic product, the United States, as a major anchor of the increasingly globalized world economy and the issuer of the dominant international reserve currency, needs to roll out more responsible and effective measures to balance its budget and restore the economic health of itself and the world.

Read the rest at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-08/03/c_131025779.htm]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/496/euro-spain Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:52:11 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 496@/talks/discussions On Tuesday, the Treasury sold 750 million euros of 3-month bills at an average yield of 1.899 percent compared to 1.568 percent at the previous auction and at a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.3 after 9.5 in June.

Spain also sold 2.14 billion euros of 6-month bills, with the average yield rising to 2.519 percent, the highest since Dec. 2010, from 1.776 percent in June, while the offer was 2.2 times subscribed after 3.8 times at the last auction.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/26/spain-bills-idUSLDE76O14K20110726

As usual we can see constant "improvement" in debt situation, this time in Spain.
May be looking at this "improvement" US goverment wanted at least to be in control of falling living standards of their residents.
So, started all this largely entertaining comedy.]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/463/us-default-comedy Fri, 22 Jul 2011 21:47:58 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 463@/talks/discussions



Anyone have any idea about this long comedy performance?

The more I look into it the more I think that something real is coming out of this.
And I doubt that it'll be good thing.]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/509/us-pension-and-healthcare-liabilities Wed, 27 Jul 2011 03:04:20 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 509@/talks/discussions

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mapping-americas-underfunded-state-pension-and-healthcare-liability-debacle]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/497/us-washington-post-abc-news-poll Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:59:13 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 497@/talks/discussions This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone July 14-17, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

Read the results here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_071711.html



Weekly income per capita (with inflation taken in account)]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/476/us-aging Sun, 24 Jul 2011 00:55:54 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 476@/talks/discussions

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Source: http://www.urban.org/retirement_policy/agingpopulation.cfm]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/440/the-most-expensive-keywords-in-google-adwords Wed, 20 Jul 2011 05:47:15 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 440@/talks/discussions


Source: http://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2011/07/18/most-expensive-google-adwords-keywords

In spite of this Google profits no longer feel so fundamental and unshaky.]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/247/rare-earth-metal-prices Fri, 17 Jun 2011 18:14:11 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 247@/talks/discussions

"Prices of the rare earths used in lasers and plasma televisions more than doubled in the past two weeks as China tightens control of mining, production and exports, according to market researcher Industrial Minerals.

The cost of dysprosium oxide, used in magnets, lasers and nuclear reactors, has risen to about $1,470 a kilogram from $700 to $740 at the start of the month, Industrial Minerals said in an e-mailed statement. Europium oxide, used in plasma TVs and energy-saving light bulbs, has more than doubled.

China, supplier of 95 percent of the 17 elements known as rare earths, has clamped down on rare-earth mining and cut export quotas, boosting prices and sparking concern among overseas users such as Japan about access to supplies. The government may further reduce export quotas, pushing prices higher, Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty said last month.

“China has long said it will consolidate the industry but it’s moving more rapidly than many observers anticipated,” said Dudley Kingsnorth, a former rare earths project manager and now chief executive officer of Perth-based advisory Industrial Minerals Co. of Australia. “There might be an element of speculation but I think the price rises have been driven by people who are desperate for the product.”

The world’s most populous nation will raise standards for exporters and won’t approve new project expansions in an effort to curb overcapacity, illegal mining and sales, the government said last month. The Ministry of Land and Resources said yesterday it wants to set aside some rare earth deposits. "

Read the rest here - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rare-earth-metal-prices-go-parabolic]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/427/greece-almost-done Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:17:32 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 427@/talks/discussions

Default will happen for certain.
We live in very interesting time.
You could tell your grandsons (yeah, to ones with four legs) that you saw.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-bonds-collapse-ecbs-nowotny-announces-bank-will-compromise-agree-temporary-greek-defau]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/425/late-2012-or-early-2013-is-going-to-be-another-very-difficult-period Tue, 19 Jul 2011 14:49:51 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 425@/talks/discussions
Dalio believes that some heavily indebted countries, including the United States, will eventually opt for printing money as a way to deal with their debts, which will lead to a collapse in their currency and in their bond markets. “There hasn’t been a case in history where they haven’t eventually printed money and devalued their currency,” he said. Other developed countries, particularly those tied to the euro and thus to the European Central Bank, don’t have the option of printing money and are destined to undergo “classic depressions,” Dalio said. The recent deal to avoid an immediate debt default by Greece didn’t alter his pessimistic view. “People concentrate on the particular thing of the moment, and they forget the larger underlying forces,” he said. “That’s what got us into the debt crisis. It’s just today, today.”

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/07/25/110725fa_fact_cassidy?printable=true&currentPage=all#ixzz1SZvuqo6z

My personal opinion - all this will happend. Just sooner. :-)
]]> https://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/308/california-based-sites-crisis-coming Wed, 29 Jun 2011 22:56:52 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 308@/talks/discussions Amazon announced today that its Associates program is to be terminated in California, in response to a new sales tax bill there. The move appears to be pre-emptive hardball to try and avert the bill being signed into law.


From - http://www.boingboing.net/2011/06/29/amazon-kills-associa.html

Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law Wednesday proposals to abolish California’s existing redevelopment program and to try to force online retailers, such as Amazon.com, to collect sales taxes.

The new laws are pieces of the Democratic budget package that lawmakers finalized late Tuesday night. Brown announced signing eight separate pieces of that package Wednesday, though not the main spending plan itself.

The online sales tax law, AB 28 1x, would seek to force online retailers who have no physical presence in California, such as Amazon.com, to collect the same levies as bricks-and-mortar stores. Lawmakers calculated it would net the state $200 million.

Retailers from Wal-Mart to mom-and-pop bookstores had pressed for the tax law rewrite.

But online retailers have already begun mobilizing to neutralize the statute. Amazon.com, for example, sent letters Wednesday severing its ties with marketing affiliates in California, one of several ways the state is trying to force big Internet retailers to cough up sales taxes.

Opponents of the new redevelopment law were plotting ways to scuttle that legislation, as well.

Under AB 26 1x and AB 27 1x, California will force its existing network of more than 400 redevelopment agencies, which spend property tax dollars to fix up blighted areas, to dissolve and join a new redevelopment program. The agencies would have to hand over $1.7 billion to the state for the privilege in the coming fiscal year, as well as $400 million each year thereafter.

Supporters of redevelopment agencies have likened the plan to extortion and have promised to sue.

Source - http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2011/06/jerry-brown-signs-laws-redevelopment-agencies-taxes-online-retailers.html

Other interesting article on the subject - http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2387843,00.asp

Comment.
California really struggles due to money shortages, so any measures that claim even $1 gain can now pass.
It looks that many California sites soon will try to understand how to get German based hosting with figurehead owners :-)]]>