War: Mordor and very big warning

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Shipments of Russian fertilizers for export have been suspended since December 1 due to the lack of licenses from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, several sources familiar with the situation told Interfax.

"The shipments have been stopped, the declarations have been canceled. Those who did not manage to register the goods by December 1 cannot send ships," said one of the agency's interlocutors in the port industry. The situation is caused by the fact that exporters have not yet received an export license from the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

"The ships are standing at the approaches to the ports, they cannot be loaded. The consignments accumulate in the seaports," another source in the transport industry describes the situation.

Export licenses are promised to be issued around December 5-6. However, already now a number of plants for the production of mineral fertilizers, mainly nitrogen fertilizers, are forced to reduce the capacity utilization, he notes.

“We hope that the situation will be resolved in the coming days without significant damage to export supplies,” says one of Interfax's interlocutors in the industry.

Another source of the agency does not exclude that if the situation is not resolved, the industry may face a halt in production in the coming days.

Source: Interfax

Seems like huge warning to our partners. As EU, Brazil and many other countries totally depend on Russian fertilizers.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

More details

The Russian government will introduce temporary quantitative restrictions on the export of mineral fertilizers for six months from December 1, 2021. For nitrogen fertilizers, the restrictions are set at no more than 5.9 million tons, and for complex fertilizers - no more than 5.35 million tons.

First of all, the restriction on the export of fertilizers will affect the US market, where Russian exports are today about 500 thousand tons, China - about 550 thousand tons, Brazil - 800 thousand tons and Europe - about 510 thousand tons. The prompt decision of the government will allow without any problems to carry out a set of agrotechnical measures in 2022 and prevent losses in the collection of grain, an increase in prices for agricultural products and livestock products.

Since the beginning of the year, prices for these products in the world have increased by 183 percent. In this regard, 20 percent of the chemical industry's capacities have already been shut down in Europe, and in the United States, fertilizer prices have almost doubled. China has also introduced quotas on fertilizer exports since mid-October, and India, due to a shortage that has arisen, has shifted to state distribution of fertilizers.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

The sweeping consultation was triggered by a complaint from an Oklahoma-based company which claimed some Russian fertilizers — almost $1 billion worth of which are sold to the U.S. every year — are “being, or are likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value … and that such imports are materially injuring and threaten to injure an industry in the United States,” according to a statement published in the U.S. government’s Federal Register.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/08/16/us-reviewing-russias-market-economy-status-a74806

And this can be the trigger point of gas prices issues. Lot of fertilizers prices are fully proportional to gas prices, as they are made from it.

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