We have now learned that Europe, and especially Germany has been just an active seller of sovereign bonds, most certainly including US paper, in recent weeks. As FAZ reports, the head of Commerzbank Martin Blessing has been dumping all bonds in his possession, primarily PIIGS paper, but also US and German ones. He does add the clarification that this has been a complicated project as there has been a buyer's strike (and with the CDS extinction it will only get more difficult as there is no natural hedge remaining), and his dumping has certainly not made things easier. Now as we all know by now, when starting a panic exodus, one has to be first, be smarter, or cheat. Here we will add a fourth one: or sell US paper. After all the demand for this is nearly insatiable, or so the neo-Keynesians out there will have us believe. Well, in the last week, someone used our definition. According to today's update in the H.4.1, the total amount of securities held in the custodial account for foreign official and international accounts just plunged by $20 billion, of which $19 billion was attributable solely to Treasurys: the second largest weekly dumb ever. In the last 8 weeks foreigners have sold a unprecedented $93 billion.
When we hear a record breaking low rate for long term mortgage, it's good idea to sell bonds. Bond exodus might push stock market up for a while.
I've been monitoring UUP - US Dollar bullish etf. It seems USD is about to go skyrocketing. If it happens, that would slaughter the bond market. Carry trade unwind will kill commodity market speculation including gold and silver. Possibly $1100 gold!!! Unthinkable? Imagine unthinkable.
Dumping US treasuries could mean two things. Either it's very dollar bullish or very dollar bearish. Ok that doesn't help much :). Just expect higher volatility.
Recently USD made a new record low against other currencies since the post WWII. So I'm betting on dollar bullish when I hear news about bond dumping.